Can BSNL make a comeback?

When infrastructure is not enough

As Jio Platforms' IPO draws attention to the value of India's digital economy, it also offers an opportunity to look back at one of the country's most important telecom stories: Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL).

In October 2026, Reuters reported strong institutional demand for Jio Platforms' IPO, which valued the business at up to $108.3 billion.¹ Jio's journey from a disruptive telecom entrant to a major digital services business reflects how dramatically India's telecom industry has changed.

BSNL's story offers a different perspective on that transformation.

For years, BSNL was an important part of India's telecommunications infrastructure. It connected homes, businesses and communities, including places where commercial incentives for private operators were less attractive. Its network was an asset, its public role was significant, and its reach extended well beyond the most visible urban markets.

But telecom changed. Consumers began expecting connectivity to be fast, affordable and reliable. They wanted data that worked when they needed it, better indoor coverage, uninterrupted video calls and services that kept pace with their lives.

The competitive question was no longer simply who had a network. It was who could deliver the experience consumers expected.

That distinction matters. A company can possess valuable infrastructure and still lose its place in the consumer's mind. BSNL's journey is a reminder that having the capacity to serve a market is not the same as being the provider people choose.

When BSNL was the infrastructure king

BSNL's historical importance cannot be understood only through its commercial performance. As a public-sector telecom operator, it also had a role in extending connectivity across India.

Its fixed-line network, broadband services and presence in less commercially attractive areas gave it a position that was difficult to evaluate through the same lens as a purely private operator.

For a long time, that reach was a meaningful advantage. When access to a telephone connection was itself a significant benefit, network availability mattered enormously. Consumers had fewer alternatives, and simply having a connection could outweigh shortcomings in the experience.

Then the basis of competition changed.

Mobile phones became central to everyday life. Data became essential rather than optional. Consumers started comparing networks on price, speed, reliability, recharge options, customer service and the digital services surrounding the connection.

Private operators invested and competed in this changing environment. Jio, in particular, reset expectations around mobile data and pricing when it entered the market in 2016. Airtel and other competitors responded to the changing landscape.

BSNL was now competing in a market where the definition of a good telecom service had moved beyond the traditional strengths on which its position had been built.

The difference was not merely technological. It was behavioural.

Consumers were making decisions using a new set of expectations, and the companies that understood and responded to those expectations had an advantage.

How BSNL lost the consumer's preference

A consumer does not usually evaluate a telecom operator by looking at its number of towers, procurement strategy or network architecture. The evaluation happens through everyday experiences.

Does the call connect? Does mobile data work at home? Can a video call continue without interruption? Is the network dependable during a commute? Does customer support resolve a problem? Is switching to another operator worth the effort?

Each experience becomes part of the consumer's judgement.

Infrastructure creates the possibility of a good experience. It does not guarantee one.

As the market moved towards 4G and increasingly data-intensive usage, network performance and the speed of modernisation became central to competitiveness. Consumers experienced these changes in much simpler terms: a service that either worked as expected or did not.

Pricing changed the equation too. Affordable data increased usage and raised the importance of consistent performance. Once consumers became accustomed to a certain level of service, competing operators had to meet that standard or offer a compelling reason to choose otherwise.

Brand perception followed experience. A consumer who repeatedly encounters poor connectivity may begin to associate the brand with unreliability. Even after the network improves, that perception may take time to change. Consumers may not immediately notice an investment in new equipment, but they are likely to notice whether their everyday experience has improved.

The competitive gap is visible in the market share reported by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI). At the end of March 2025, private access service providers accounted for 92.04% of wireless mobile subscribers, while BSNL and MTNL together accounted for 7.96%.²

This figure does not explain the whole story of BSNL's decline, nor does it isolate the contribution of any single factor. It does, however, show the competitive position the public-sector operators faced in a market dominated by private providers.

The more useful question is why consumers formed their preferences, and what would make them reconsider.

Looking beyond the network: BSNL through a PESTEL lens

PESTEL helps explain why BSNL's challenges cannot be reduced to a single technology decision or management issue. Political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal factors shape both the conditions under which it operates and the experience it can deliver.

Political

BSNL has a public-service role, particularly in areas where private operators may have less incentive to invest. Government revival packages and a project management unit set up to track the 4G rollout have supported its modernisation.^{3, 4} The challenge is to turn this support into better connectivity and stronger consumer confidence.

Economic

The telecom market has shifted from voice calls to data-led consumption. A sharp fall in mobile data prices has increased usage while putting pressure on operators to compete through affordable plans and reliable service. BSNL's operating EBITDA increased from ₹944 crore in FY22 to ₹2,164 crore in FY24, while its net loss narrowed to ₹5,371 crore.^{5, 6} Financial improvement creates room to rebuild, but consumers still need a compelling reason to choose BSNL.

Social

Consumers now depend on mobile connectivity for work, payments, education and entertainment. Their expectations also vary by location and usage. A rural household prioritising dependable coverage may have different needs from an urban professional who relies on mobile data throughout the day. Understanding these differences is important if BSNL wants to regain consumer preference.

Technological

Jio took a different approach when building its 4G network. It partnered with Samsung through a turnkey agreement covering equipment, network establishment and maintenance, helping it build its network at scale.⁷ As Jio expanded into 5G, Nokia and Ericsson became major equipment suppliers.⁸ BSNL, meanwhile, is deploying an indigenous 4G technology stack involving TCS, C-DOT and Tejas Networks, with a path towards 5G upgrades.⁹ The difference is not simply the technology or the vendors used, but how quickly the network can be deployed and translated into a reliable consumer experience.

Environmental

Providing connectivity across mountains, islands and remote border regions brings additional challenges, including power availability, difficult terrain and weather-resistant equipment. BSNL's reach in these areas remains important, but the network must deliver dependable service, not just geographical coverage.

Legal

Spectrum fees, licence requirements, infrastructure clearances and regulatory compliance influence the cost and pace of network expansion. BSNL must manage these obligations alongside the investment and operational changes needed to compete.

Taken together, these factors show that BSNL's comeback depends on more than infrastructure investment. PESTEL explains the external pressures, but it does not reveal why consumers choose one operator over another or what would persuade them to switch.

That requires a closer understanding of consumer behaviour.

The missing link: understanding the consumer behind the numbers

Imagine BSNL reviewing its market position and discovering that consumers want cheaper plans, better coverage and faster internet.

Those findings might be correct, but they are not enough to determine what the company should do next.

Which consumers are most dissatisfied? Which locations create the greatest friction? Does poor indoor coverage matter more than data speed? Are customers avoiding BSNL because of their actual experience or because of what they believe the experience will be? Would improving one aspect of the service be enough to change their primary SIM preference?

These are questions about motivation, context and behaviour.

Traditional market research can help answer them. Surveys can measure preferences, interviews can uncover experiences, and quantitative studies can test whether findings hold across different consumer groups.

But a survey conducted at a particular moment may not capture every emerging frustration. Structured questionnaires can also miss problems that researchers have not yet thought to ask about.

Social listening adds another perspective. Online reviews, public posts, forums and digital conversations can reveal recurring complaints and emerging expectations.

However, social listening has limitations. People who post online are not necessarily representative of the entire market. A high volume of complaints does not automatically tell a business how many customers will switch operators, and sentiment alone cannot establish which intervention will change behaviour.

The opportunity lies in connecting these sources of evidence.

For BSNL, that could mean combining customer research, network performance, public conversations and local market context to investigate why consumers behave as they do.

Instead of stopping at the finding that customers want better connectivity, the company could investigate which experiences matter most, for which consumer groups, in which situations, and what changes are most likely to improve preference.

This is the difference between collecting consumer feedback and developing a deeper understanding of the consumer.

It is also where continuous consumer intelligence can complement traditional market research and social listening.

Can BSNL make a comeback?

Writing off BSNL would overlook an important recent development: the company is continuing to expand its 4G capabilities.

In a written reply in the Lok Sabha, the Ministry of Communications said BSNL had installed 97,672 4G sites as of 15 January 2026, of which 95,511 were on air.¹⁰ The government has described the equipment as indigenously developed and upgradeable to 5G.⁹

There are two ways to interpret this development.

The first is operational: BSNL is upgrading its network and building the capability needed to compete in a market shaped by modern mobile services.

The second is strategic: network deployment creates an opportunity to earn back consumer consideration, but it does not guarantee that consumers will return.

A newly activated site is a measure of infrastructure progress. A consumer who switches to BSNL, stays with it, recommends it or begins to trust its service is evidence of a different kind of progress.

Consumer perception can lag behind improvements in the product. If a user has experienced unreliable service for years, the announcement of a new network may not immediately change their opinion. They need to experience the difference, repeatedly and in the places that matter to them.

There are also reasons not to assume that the story is only one of decline. In a written reply in the Rajya Sabha, the Minister of Communications said BSNL's customer base increased from 8.86 crore in March 2024 to 9.28 crore in December 2025.¹¹

That growth is a useful counterpoint to the assumption that the company has no path forward. It does not prove that BSNL has regained its former competitive strength, but it suggests that its future should be evaluated through current evidence rather than its historical reputation alone.

The comeback question, then, is not simply whether BSNL can install more sites. It is whether the network can support a proposition that consumers find relevant and dependable.

What does the consumer actually want from BSNL?

Imagine three consumers considering a switch to BSNL.

The first lives in a smaller town and wants affordable connectivity that works consistently at home and at work. The second lives in a city, has multiple devices and depends on mobile data throughout the day. The third lives in a rural area where the availability of a dependable network matters more than a broad range of digital features.

They may all belong to the same telecom category, but they are not solving the same problem.

For the first consumer, affordability without repeated service issues may be the deciding factor. For the second, network performance and the inconvenience of switching may outweigh a lower price. For the third, coverage and reliability may matter more than the latest features.

A single national campaign or one pricing strategy may not address all three needs.

BSNL needs to understand where it has a genuine advantage, which consumers are most likely to value it, and what might prevent them from choosing it. It also needs to distinguish between consumers who are dissatisfied with their current operator and those who are dissatisfied but unlikely to switch.

These differences matter because stated preference and actual behaviour are not always the same.

A consumer may say that a cheaper plan is attractive but continue using a more expensive operator because the network is more reliable. Another may be willing to try BSNL but hesitate because of an outdated perception. A third may already use BSNL as a secondary SIM but not trust it enough to make it the primary connection.

Understanding these situations can help turn network investment into a more focused consumer strategy.

From social listening to continuous consumer intelligence

The challenge BSNL faces is common across industries. Businesses often have operational data, customer feedback and digital conversations, yet still struggle to understand what is driving consumer decisions.

Social listening tools help monitor what people say. Traditional market research helps investigate attitudes and measure preferences. Synthetic audiences can help explore how modelled consumer profiles might respond to different scenarios.

Each approach contributes something different. None should be mistaken for a complete representation of the market on its own.

Outllyr is being built around the idea of connecting these forms of evidence into a continuous understanding of consumers.

Outllyr Echo listens to digital conversations and market signals to help identify emerging needs, recurring friction and changes in expectations. Outllyr Twin models consumer profiles to help teams explore potential responses to different product, pricing and market scenarios.

In a hypothetical BSNL application, Echo could help identify the situations in which consumers express dissatisfaction with their mobile experience. Twin could then help explore hypotheses about which service improvements or pricing changes might influence different consumer segments.

Those hypotheses would still need validation through real consumer research, operational data and observed market behaviour. Synthetic audience outputs should inform investigation, not replace evidence from real people.

The broader objective is to move beyond a collection of disconnected reports and towards a more connected process: understanding what is happening, investigating why it is happening, exploring what could change and identifying which decisions deserve further testing.

That is the role continuous consumer intelligence can play alongside established market research methods.

The real lesson of BSNL

BSNL's story is not simply about a public-sector giant losing to a private competitor. It is about a market changing faster than an organisation could translate its strengths into the experience consumers increasingly expected.

The company had reach, infrastructure and a national role. But the value of those advantages changed as mobile data transformed everyday life.

Now, BSNL has an opportunity to use its expanding 4G network as the foundation for a stronger proposition. Whether it can turn that foundation into sustained consumer preference will depend on network execution, competitive choices, trust and how effectively it understands the people it wants to serve.

The same lesson applies to any business facing disruption.

Infrastructure can create an advantage. Technology can create an opportunity. But understanding the consumer is what helps a business turn both into a reason to choose it.

Sources

1. Reuters, via Kuwait Times. Jio IPO oversubscribed within hours of trading. 21 October 2026.
2. Telecom Regulatory Authority of India. Highlights of Telecom Subscription Data as on 31st March, 2025 (Press Release No. 35/2025). 7 May 2025.
3. Prime Minister's Office. Union Cabinet approves allotment of 4G/5G spectrum to BSNL: the third revival package, with a summary of the second, of 2022. June 2023.
4. RCR Wireless. Indian government to track BSNL's 4G deployment progress. 22 July 2024.
5. BSNL. Investors update: EBITDA for 2021-22 to 2023-24.
6. Deccan Chronicle. BSNL's losses narrow to Rs 5,371 cr in FY24.
7. Samsung. Jio and Samsung shift the Indian LTE mobile market landscape once again with the I&G Project. 2017.
8. SDxCentral. Jio taps Ericsson, Nokia for 5G SA build. October 2022.
9. Press Information Bureau. BSNL's indigenous 4G stack: C-DOT core, Tejas Networks radio, TCS integration. 28 September 2025.
10. Communications Today. BSNL expands cellular connectivity to 4,489 villages in J&K, reporting a Ministry of Communications reply in the Lok Sabha. 5 February 2026.
11. Communications Today. BSNL's customer base rises to 9.28 crore in Dec 2025, reporting a written reply in the Rajya Sabha. 6 February 2026.